Bitcoin Resilience Stands Out Amid Crypto Market Turmoil
Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience compared to the broader digital assets market, maintaining a dominance metric of 55.3%, marking its highest level since April 2021. In a recent note, Matteo Greco, a research analyst at Fineqia International, highlighted that Bitcoin’s market cap dominance has reached a three-year peak, defying recent sell-offs and market fluctuations. Greco also pointed out the sustained robustness in trading volumes.
BTC Spot ETFs recorded a significant weekly trading volume of approximately $16.2 billion, with an average daily volume of around $3.2 billion. Since its inception, the cumulative trading volume stands at approximately $212 billion, with an average daily volume of roughly $3.3 billion.
Bitcoin Ends the Week in Red
Bitcoin closed the week at around $65,650, experiencing a 5.3% decline from the previous week’s closing value of around $69,350. The week was marked by notable volatility, particularly during the weekend, following a period of relative stability from Monday to Thursday. BTC experienced a downturn on Friday, falling to a low of $65,100. The negative trend persisted into Saturday, reaching a weekly low of approximately $60,650 before rebounding and concluding the week around $65,650.
The decline in prices over the weekend was attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, market sentiment improved following an announcement of a temporary halt in hostilities among the involved nations. Additionally, the upcoming halving, scheduled for the night between April 19th and 20th, has garnered attention. Historically, previous halving events have been followed by 9-12 months of upward trends, albeit triggering short-term “sell the news” reactions before and after the event.
The short-term bearish sentiment is further reflected in the net outflow of $85 million from Bitcoin Spot ETFs during the week. Investors are exercising caution and engaging in profit-taking following the strong uptrend witnessed in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.
US Inflation Data Surpasses Expectations
On the macroeconomic front, recent US inflation data exceeded expectations, prompting a revision in market participants’ rate cut projections for 2024. At first, projections suggested a decrease of at least 75 basis points in interest rates, equating to three 25-basis-point cuts. However, the latest data has shifted projections to anticipate 25/50 basis points cuts during the year, with the first cut expected in Q3 and a potential second cut towards year-end.
Greco highlighted the potential for a prolonged period of stricter monetary policy due to persistently high inflation levels exceeding central banks’ targets. He further suggested that this scenario could exacerbate short-term difficulties for risk-on assets, prompting investors to adjust their portfolios based on revised mid-term expectations influenced by current financial indicators.
Over the past week, digital asset investment products saw a slight decrease in funds, with outflows totaling $126 million. Bitcoin saw outflows amounting to $110 million, yet it managed to maintain positive inflows of $555 million month-to-date. Short-bitcoin, which had been witnessing outflows for the past three weeks, observed minor inflows of $1.7 million, likely taking advantage of the recent price weakness.
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