Ethereum and Solana Supply Growth Could Fall Below Gold by 2031, Grayscale Says

TLDR:

Grayscale sees Ethereum supply growth falling to 0.4% by 2031, below gold’s estimated 1.8% annual rate.
Solana supply growth could slow to 1.1% by 2031 if SIMD-0550 and SIMD-0553 secure governance approval.
EIP-8363 could cut Ethereum net consensus yield from 2.6% to 1.2% near the current 33% staking ratio.
Solana’s faster disinflation model could reduce emissions by 18.9 million SOL over the next six years.

Ethereum and Solana could enter a markedly tighter supply era by 2031 if proposed tokenomics reforms move from draft status into active network policy. Grayscale Research estimates annual supply growth could fall to about 0.4% for Ether and 1.1% for SOL under its modeled assumptions.

Ethereum and Solana could get much scarcer over time, per Grayscale.
$ETH supply growth: ~0.4% by 2031 $SOL supply growth: ~1.1% Both could fall below gold’s ~1.8% supply growth. pic.twitter.com/PUJFaOzuki
— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) August 16, 2026

Those rates would sit below the roughly 1.8% annual expansion of above-ground gold stocks, according to the World Gold Council figure cited by Grayscale. However, the projections depend on immediate implementation, steady network activity, and an Ethereum staking ratio remaining near one-third of circulating supply.
Ethereum and Solana Could Undercut Gold’s Supply Growth
The Ethereum proposal is registered as EIP-8363, “Tapered Issuance Burn,” although Grayscale’s chart uses its earlier EIP-8361 designation. The proposal would burn a larger share of validator consensus rewards as more ETH becomes staked across the network.
Around 42 million ETH, equal to roughly 34% of supply, is currently staked, while staking APR stands near 2.6%. Under EIP-8363, the reward burn would increase with staking participation and reach 100% once the staking ratio reaches 50%.
Applying the permanent curve immediately at roughly 33% staking would reduce net consensus yield from about 2.6% to 1.2%. Therefore, the proposal includes an 18-month transition intended to reduce the abrupt impact on validator economics.
Lower issuance would also reduce dilution for holders who do not stake their ETH. Still, the proposal remains a draft, so Grayscale’s 0.4% estimate describes a modeled outcome rather than approved monetary policy.
Tokenomics Reforms Would Cut Issuance and Staking Yields
A similar effort to tighten token supply is taking shape on Solana, where two proposals target issuance through different mechanisms. First, SIMD-0550 would double annual disinflation from 15% to 30%, accelerating the network’s path toward lower supply growth.
That change would move SOL toward its existing 1.5% terminal inflation rate by the first half of 2029 instead of 2032. Helius estimates the proposal would reduce emissions by 18.9 million SOL over six years.
The same modeling shows nominal staking yields falling from 5.84% today to 4.34% after one year and 2.25% after three years. Meanwhile, SIMD-0553 would redesign transaction fees and increase the amount of SOL permanently removed from circulation.
The draft would replace Solana’s flat 5,000-lamport signature fee with a 2,500-lamport inclusion fee paid to block leaders. In addition, it would introduce a separate resource-based fee that would be burned entirely, further increasing the amount of SOL removed from circulation.
Currently, Solana burns about 648 SOL daily while issuing roughly 60,000 SOL each day. However, under the proposed terminal resource-fee rate, estimates cited by Solana Compass suggest daily burns could rise substantially to between 7,500 and 9,000 SOL.
Together, these changes could materially alter Solana’s supply trajectory. Both proposals are already in formal governance, with voting scheduled to close on August 18. If approved, their combined effect could push annual supply growth toward Grayscale’s estimated 1.1% by 2031.
Even so, the comparison with gold reflects a measurable change in issuance rather than a guaranteed price outcome. Ultimately, supply growth remains only one factor, alongside network activity, fee generation, staking participation, and validator economics.
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